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05/21/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Now that the manager has been replaced and the Royals are settling back into their customary place toward the bottom of the American League Central standings, the next question is, where do they go from here?
Well, let's take a look at how things are shaping up, both in the short-term and long-term.
For new manager Ned Yost, the good news is that expectations can't get much lower, considering he took over a last-place team on May 13. To his credit, Kansas City has gone 5-2 since Yost began filling out the lineup cards.
The team has a bona fide ace in Zack Greinke, who has established himself as one of the game's best. He is also establishing himself as maybe the most wasted talent in the majors. Greinke boasts a 2.72 ERA, however the bullpen has managed to squander the lead in four of his nine starts on the year. That, quite simply, is amazing.
Along those same lines, the Royals have Joakim Soria, one of the game's premier closers. Like Greinke, the team hasn't quite taken full advantages of his services considering its record (17-25).
Surely, those two names will be floated around at the trade deadline because, let's face it, what's the point in having a top-notch closer if you're only using him once or twice a week? Similarly, what's the point in having a Cy Young pitcher if you're not able to score runs behind him.
Then again, Soria is signed pretty cheap -- he'll make $3 million this season and $4 million next season, with the team holding options from 2012-14 -- and Greinke is locked up through 2012. Both players are in their mid-20s, but how old will they be by the time the Royals are truly ready to contend? Does it make more sense to get value for them now and dive wholeheartedly into this rebuilding thing? At some point, those are questions general manager Dayton Moore will have to consider.
But enough of the gloom and dreary. Let's look at some other guys Moore hopes will be wearing Royals' blue for years to come.
In an interview with the team's website this week, general manager Dayton Moore said the focus is obviously to keep an eye on the future.
"We're going to continue to do what we've been doing with regards to developing players in the farm system," Moore said. "We've got a few players doing well in Triple-A, which is an upgrade from last year. Our Double-A team is doing very well. And we've got to continue to focus on developing quality pitchers that impact our Major League team, and position players as well."
First baseman Billy Butler (.337) continues to hit everything in his path. Second baseman Mike Aviles (.375) is equally hot.
Yost understands that he needs to evaluate the young guys -- first baseman Kila Ka'aihue, second baseman Chris Getz, center fielder Mitch Maier and catcher Brayan Pena, to name a few. Yost also knows first-rounders Mike Moustakas ('07, third base), Eric Hosmer ('08, first base) and Aaron Crow ('08, pitcher) will eventually be worked into the mix. Also making their way up the organization's pipeline are outfielder Derrick Robinson, catcher Wil Myers and pitchers Mike Montgomery and Blaine Hardy.
Understandably, Royals fans have grown weary of the constant eye to the future. But in order to take that step forward, the evaluation process must start now.
YOUNG TIGERS PAYING DIVIDENDS
The influence of the Detroit Tigers' rookies extends beyond mohawk haircuts, and more importantly, to the field.
Recent callup Casper Wells became the latest to join the party during Wednesday's 5-1 win at Oakland as the young outfielder went 2-for-5 with a double and two RBI in only his second big league start. Second baseman Danny Worth has gone 4-for-10 in three games since being called up last week.
Center fielder Austin Jackson was with the club to start the year. Jackson, the AL Rookie of the Month for April, is hitting .329 and leads the team with six stolen bases.
Then there is rookie left fielder Brennan Boesch, who is hitting a ridiculous .354 in 22 games this season. His .987 OPS ranks second on the team behind only Miguel Cabrera (1.030), who leads the majors with 38 RBI. Boesch registered an RBI in 12 of his first 19 games, the first time a Tiger had done that since 1920, according to the Detroit Free Press.
"I think the rookies have made a good impression," manager Jim Leyland said on the team's website. "Veteran players like good players. They like good, young players who got talent that can help them win."
TWINS LOOKING TO REGROUP FOLLOWING POOR ROAD TRIP
The Minnesota Twins would be well-advised not to delve too deeply in their just-concluded seven-game road trip against AL East foes New York, Toronto and Boston.
They entered the trip with a 2 1/2-game lead in the AL Central and eager to see how they measured up against other top contenders in the league. Over the last two seasons, the Twins have gone just 2-17 in those three cities.
Having gone 2-5 during their latest trip, let's just say the jury is still out.
"Two-and-five is not a great road trip," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "It was a tough road trip, we knew that going into it -- facing good pitching, good hitting teams. We battled through it. We had our chances in a few more of them. But overall, not a great trip. We did not swing the bats as well as we're capable of and we didn't pitch as good."
That 2 1/2-game cushion has now vanished, as Minnesota enters the weekend tied with Detroit (24-17) for first place. Most alarmingly, starting pitcher Francisco Liriano, who was so dominant in April (3-0, 0.93), is now 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA in four starts. Being that it's still only May, it's not time to start panicking just yet.
The Twins kick off a nine-game homestand beginning with Milwaukee tonight, and they'll get another crack at the Yankees during a three-game set next week.
WHITE SOX G.M. TO TEAM: RELAX
The message earlier this week from Chicago White Sox general manager Kenny Williams to his team was simple: pay attention to details and fundamentals, but also lighten up and have some fun.
Sensing some frustration and uncertainty in the wake of the team's 16-22 start, Williams called an impromptu 25-minute meeting prior to Wednesday's game against the Angels. Rather than flip over tables and demand accountability, the tone was much more light-hearted as Williams told the players to allow themselves to have a little fun. He even went as far as to nix early trade concerns, though he acknowledged that other GMs have called.
"I told them, 'Wait a second, we usually make these calls, you're calling me?'" Williams said. "'No it doesn't work that way.' So they've been told, 'Thank you, but no thank you.' That's the end of it. We still expect to win."
Manager Ozzie Guillen, not surprisingly, has a different take on team meetings.
"Good teams win games, bad teams have meetings," Guillen told local reporters on Wednesday. "We've already had two."
CLEVELAND'S LINEUP SHUFFLING DUE TO INJURIES
Cleveland Indians' leadoff man Asdrubal Cabrera (fractured left forearm) is likely out until August while No. 2 hitter Grady Sizemore (left knee contusion) is hoping to return from the disabled list in June. That is, if Sizemore doesn't need surgery on his balky knee.
With Cleveland (15-24) already in last place in the AL Central, manager Manny Acta is in the unenviable position of playing mix-and-match with the top of his lineup.
"It's tough, it's very tough," Acta said. "I don't think anybody anticipated losing two of our best players here. But everybody has their problems. Nobody said it would be easy."
Recent call up Trevor Crowe is expected to hold down the leadoff spot for the foreseeable future, while Mark Grudzielanek is likely to bat second whenever he is in the lineup at second base. Jason Donald was called up on Tuesday to fill Cabrera's roster spot. Donald was penciled into the No. 2 spot in Thursday's lineup, though Acta said he would be moved down in the order.
"We don't want to put too much pressure on these kids," Acta told the Cleveland Plain Dealer. "We want to see if they can get something going, but we also have to understand those are two important spots in the lineup and you need some production out of them."
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Sixers make it official with Collins >>
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NFL betting action is back! At MySportsbook, all of the pro football odds are posted for the NFC North. Check out how we see the four teams in this cloudy division stacking up this year in the chase for the playoffs! Green Bay Packers (+125) - With QB Aaron Rodgers leading the offense and DC Dom Capers working his magic on defense, the Packers are a real force to be reckoned with.
Virtually nothing changed on this offense for Green Bay from last year to this year, save for the addition of rookie OT Brian Bulaga to the bunch. Expect more huge numbers from the Pack, and a relatively favorable schedule should get them over the hump and into the playoffs once again this season. My NFL Betting Predictions: 11-5, 1st place in NFC North Minnesota Vikings (+130) - There are still too many unknowns about the Vikes this year. There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not.
There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.
Chicago Bears (+350) - The Bears are probably a bit of an overhyped team once again this year.No, we don't think it is plausible for QB Jay Cutler to have as bad of a season as he did last year, and we do think the additions of RB Chester Taylor and DE Julius Peppers are going to help immensely, but there's still something in the water in the Windy City that we aren't so sure about. Maybe Chicago finds its way to .500... but then again, maybe it doesn't. If Favre comes back, Cutler might be the worst quarterback in this division this year.
Detroit Lions (+1500) - The Lions are probably once again going to be the whipping boys for the rest of the teams in the NFC North, but they aren't just going to roll over and die once again. There is some real talent amassing on this team offensively, as the combination of QB Matt Stafford, RB Jahvid Best, WR Calvin Johnson, and TE Brandon Pettigrew should put a bunch of points on the board if the offensive line can even remotely hold up. The questions really lie on defense, where it feels like DT Ndamukong Suh is going to be trying to stop opposing teams all by himself. This year should show some marked improvement in the Motor City.
The Patriots will make NFL betting fans a lot of money this season, get in early and enjoy the cash.
To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your NFL football betting needs.
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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