Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn has field of nine

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/07/2010 - Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rebel Stakes runner-up Noble's Promise tops a field of nine Kentucky Derby hopefuls for Saturday's $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. The 1 1/8-mile race has a post-time of 5:45 p.m. (et).

Owned by Chasing Dreams Racing, the colt will start from post three with Robby Albarado returning to ride. Noble's Promise is trained by Ken McPeek and is 2-1 in the morning-line.

"I'm pretty sure that this horse can handle running here," said assistant trainer Walter Blum, Jr., "then back in the (Kentucky) Derby in three weeks. He's a very tough horse. He had a nick on his ankle after winning the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. But it didn't really stop him before the Breeders' Cup, where he was third."

Noble's Promise has won three of seven career starts for $793,500. In 2008 he won the Fitz Dixon Stakes at Presque Isle Downs and Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity Stakes. Following his third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile he was second in the CashCall Futurity to Lookin At Luck who won the Rebel Stakes.

Blum, who was the regular exercise rider for 2008 Kentucky Derby champ Big Brown, favorably compares the two colts.

"He's just as good, if not better," Blum said of Noble's Promise. "He doesn't have the bad feet that Big Brown had, but that's what made him special, in that he overcame so much. He (Big Brown) was better suited for the turf, so that made his wins on the dirt special, too. Noble can run on grass, poly or dirt. He could probably run over broken glass."

Super Saver, the third-place finisher in the Tampa Bay Derby, has been made the 9-5 favorite for the 74th Arkansas Derby. The three-year-old colt will start from the inside post with Calvin Borel riding.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Super Saver is owned by WinStar Farm. The colt was making his 2010 debut in the Tampa Bay Derby where he was the 3-2 favorite. After setting the early pace he faded down the stretch to finish behind Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams.

Last year he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs after finishing fourth at Belmont Park in the Champagne. Super Saver has earned $201,232 in five career starts with two wins.

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas sends out Dublin in the Arkansas Derby. Third in the Rebel, Dublin will break from post two with Terry Thompson in the saddle. The chestnut colt is the third choice at 7-2.

Owned by Robert Baker and William Mack, Dublin began the year by finishing second to Conveyance in Oaklawn's Southwest Stakes. The colt has earned $308,623 with two wins in seven starts. His only stakes victory was the Hopeful at Saratoga last September.

Here is the complete field for the Arkansas Derby in post position order: Super Saver, Calvin Borel, 9-5; Dublin, Terry Thompson, 7-2; Noble's Promise, Robby Albarado, 2-1: Northern Giant, Victor Espinoza, 8-1; Uh Oh Bango, Shaun Bridgmohan, 15-1; New Madrid, Abel Castellano, Jr., 20-1; Berberis, Aaron Gryder, 30-1; Line of David, Jon Court, 15-1 and Pulsion, Corey Nakatani, 15-1.

The Arkansas Derby will be televised on NBC along with the Blue Grass Stakes from Keeneland.

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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.